Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 7.984804 9.420379 10.995729 12.846853 14.956251 17.278749 20.022800
2025-02-09 5.758427 7.692107 10.036451 13.059637 16.823691 21.322639 27.069974
2025-02-16 4.242693 6.327821 9.084975 12.930953 18.080030 24.650839 33.570816
2025-02-23 3.152469 5.203419 8.136617 12.520807 18.767673 27.189319 39.207482
2025-03-02 2.358103 4.284965 7.249760 11.968785 19.076113 29.128240 44.101812
2025-03-09 1.885905 3.739239 6.783351 11.902348 19.987273 31.893326 50.271729
2025-03-16 1.500028 3.239745 6.283315 11.674804 20.575057 34.176143 55.859324
2025-03-23 1.330479 3.086396 6.322177 12.300780 22.524318 38.609552 64.905417
2025-03-30 1.126024 2.815441 6.100781 12.437201 23.663381 41.845121 72.312868
2025-04-06 0.946503 2.550878 5.840995 12.456810 24.582774 44.768324 79.389350
2025-04-13 0.793744 2.305752 5.573165 12.414802 25.369465 47.503356 86.305214
2025-04-20 0.744920 2.291652 5.769012 13.273387 27.828012 53.173233 98.315342
2025-04-27 0.671611 2.205446 5.810769 13.856736 29.879277 58.366411 109.985733
2025-05-04 0.602319 2.113316 5.827008 14.394611 31.902948 63.666508 122.187709
2025-05-11 0.507562 1.923582 5.586841 14.362128 32.822403 67.072947 131.345496
2025-05-18 0.409275 1.690689 5.198047 13.949678 32.940988 69.026169 138.064809
2025-05-25 0.321523 1.457708 4.759375 13.356343 32.619371 70.122463 143.296201
2025-06-01 0.269864 1.326876 4.560172 13.287503 33.372505 73.271005 152.384275
2025-06-08 0.220979 1.185932 4.302867 13.039002 33.708660 75.626338 160.123216
2025-06-15 0.206471 1.174705 4.416284 13.726830 36.151724 82.234280 176.104924
2025-06-22 0.179418 1.100098 4.325279 13.876734 37.396521 86.524064 187.893669
2025-06-29 0.153277 1.017651 4.192679 13.898313 38.346266 90.268498 198.811866
2025-07-06 0.129696 0.935534 4.043075 13.852229 39.130131 93.712133 209.302612